![]() ![]() ![]() Lomborg’s idea of a “sensible” discussion may be one that ignores the science, but the fact is that the NOAA analysis gives the lie to the notion that it is a moral choice not to do everything humanly possible to prevent this tragedy, a lie to the notion that we can “adapt” to climate change - unless by “adapt” you mean “force the next 50 generations to endure endless misery because we were too damn greedy to give up 0.1% of our GDP each year.” …the climate change that is taking place because of increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop … Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ”dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. The key point the anti-science crowd seems unaware of is that, as a 2009 NOAA-led study explained, impacts like sea level rise (and Dust-Bowlification) would be “largely irreversible for 1,000 years”: Unfortunately, humans are on a path to blow past 550 ppm and hit 800 to 1,000 ppm this century. The original decline in temperature from the end-Eocene (~34 million years ago) and the onset of the Antarctic ice sheet occurred when CO₂ levels declined to below ~600 ppm. All the ice is going to melt if we keep listening to inactivists like Lomborg.ĬO2 levels over past 80 million years. “Temerity”? As the saying goes, I don’t think that word means what Lomborg thinks it means. This, of course, is only the outcome of continuing ever larger carbon emissions for many hundreds of years, something that no one is realistically expecting.Ĭould we please have a sensible, non-scare conversation back at the venerable National Geographic? “If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we’ll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58.” They present the world “if all the ice melted” - and they have the temerity to suggest it will happen with more global warming. The deniers direct us to the Danish delayer’s widely unread Facebook page - seriously Bjorn, only “9,436 likes, 835 talking about this”? - where Lomborg asserts: A leading denier website actually cites current data on sea ice (!) to refute Nat Geo, even though it is only melting landlocked ice that raises sea levels. The confusionists are preternaturally confused by all this. That said, the text on Nat Geo’s graphic is a little confusing and has the unfortunate effect of suggesting that we would need 22☏ of global warming to melt all the ice on the planet, when that’s not what the paleoclimate record suggests. ![]() The best science suggests that on our current CO2 emissions path, by 2100 we could well pass the tipping point that would make 200+ feet of sea level rise all but unstoppable - though it would certainly take a long time after 2100 for the full melt-out to actually occur. And who better to be alarmed about how we are going to destroy the nation’s geography than National Geographic? Unsurprisingly, the deniers and confusionists, including Bjorn Lomborg himself, have suggested that somehow Nat Geo’s concern is misplaced. Still, National Geographic has been one of the few major magazines to consistently warn the public about the risks posed by unrestricted carbon pollution. So if the prospect of Sandy-level storm surges happening every year (!) in a half century or so isn’t enough to get us to stop using the atmosphere as an open sewer for carbon pollution, then the prospect we are going to melt all of the Earth’s landlocked ice and raise sea levels more than 200 feet over the next couple of millenna or so ain’t gonna do the trick. Homo sapiens sapiens, the species with the ironic name, is not known for long-term thinking.
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